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#11
General Discussion / WSJ Article on Bridgewater See...
Last post by Dexter - January 04, 2017, 01:30:47 PMHere's a pretty amazing article on how Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates is seeking to construct an algorithm that will automate managerial decision-making at the firm.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-is-building-an-algorithmic-model-of-its-founders-brain-1482423694
As I was reading this article, I kept wondering: Could the human decision-making process be mostly/fully automated? How adaptable is the Bridgewater software (i.e., what happens when it receives unexpected inputs)? Could this software really predict the outcomes of meetings before they were completed? Could this technology one day make the middle managers of the world obsolete?
These are big questions ... with unclear answers. Intelligently programmed software can obviously do amazing things, but what are it's limits?
Definitely something to think about.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-is-building-an-algorithmic-model-of-its-founders-brain-1482423694
As I was reading this article, I kept wondering: Could the human decision-making process be mostly/fully automated? How adaptable is the Bridgewater software (i.e., what happens when it receives unexpected inputs)? Could this software really predict the outcomes of meetings before they were completed? Could this technology one day make the middle managers of the world obsolete?
These are big questions ... with unclear answers. Intelligently programmed software can obviously do amazing things, but what are it's limits?
Definitely something to think about.
#12
General Discussion / NY Times Article: "How to Hide...
Last post by Dexter - January 03, 2017, 03:30:44 PMFascinating article in the NY Times about how a wealthy businessman went to extreme lengths to hide assets and evade taxes.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/30/magazine/how-to-hide-400-million.html?_r=0
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/30/magazine/how-to-hide-400-million.html?_r=0
#13
General Discussion / Re: Active vs. Passive Investi...
Last post by Dexter - December 22, 2016, 12:28:15 PMSome interesting points are made in this article about the challenges of active management.
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2016/12/21/new-evidence-that-challenges-active-management
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2016/12/21/new-evidence-that-challenges-active-management
#14
Investment Ideas / Re: TWTR - Twitter Inc.
Last post by Dexter - December 21, 2016, 04:33:48 PMMark, any thoughts on the latest two executives leaving Twitter?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/12/20/two-more-twitter-execs-leave/95671562/
http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/12/20/two-more-twitter-execs-leave/95671562/
#15
Books / Re: "The Outsiders" by William...
Last post by Dexter - December 21, 2016, 04:29:58 PMHere's a video interview at Google with William Thorndike, author of "The Outsiders."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6h5bvxnBKk
At around the 30 minute mark, he mentions a few contemporary CEOs that have "outsider" traits. Interestingly, he mentions Mike Pearson of Valeant Pharmaceuticals, which shows that it can be hard to predict who the outsiders are before the fact.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6h5bvxnBKk
At around the 30 minute mark, he mentions a few contemporary CEOs that have "outsider" traits. Interestingly, he mentions Mike Pearson of Valeant Pharmaceuticals, which shows that it can be hard to predict who the outsiders are before the fact.
#16
General Discussion / Re: 'What is Your Edge?' by Jo...
Last post by Dexter - December 16, 2016, 05:03:59 PMA quick follow-up...
It seems to me that time and temperament are the two main investment edges available to individual investors. Individuals can be long-term oriented in their investments (they don't need to show short-term performance to keep clients happy), and they can patiently wait for the right pitch to swing at.
On the other hand, informational and analytical edges can be difficult to achieve and maintain. There are a lot of smart people running around out there, and some of them probably have better information and a better understanding of what's going on.
So, I think it pays to be humble regarding what you know and only invest when the odds are heavily in your favor.
It seems to me that time and temperament are the two main investment edges available to individual investors. Individuals can be long-term oriented in their investments (they don't need to show short-term performance to keep clients happy), and they can patiently wait for the right pitch to swing at.
On the other hand, informational and analytical edges can be difficult to achieve and maintain. There are a lot of smart people running around out there, and some of them probably have better information and a better understanding of what's going on.
So, I think it pays to be humble regarding what you know and only invest when the odds are heavily in your favor.
#17
General Discussion / 'What is Your Edge?' by John H...
Last post by Dexter - December 13, 2016, 02:40:47 PMSome excellent commentary here on investment edge from John Huber (portfolio manager at Saber Capital Management, LLC).
http://basehitinvesting.com/what-is-your-edge/
http://basehitinvesting.com/what-is-your-edge/
#18
Books / "How to Get Lucky" by Max Gunt...
Last post by Dexter - November 10, 2016, 02:32:34 PMFound the following book notes to be interesting. Thought I'd share with the community.
http://sanjaymeena.io/books/book_notes_how_to_be_lucky/
http://sanjaymeena.io/books/book_notes_how_to_be_lucky/
#19
General Discussion / 6 ways President Donald Trump ...
Last post by Dexter - November 09, 2016, 02:14:53 PM #20
General Discussion / Re: Active vs. Passive Investi...
Last post by Dexter - November 08, 2016, 06:42:01 PMHere's another perspective from Steven Bregman of Horizon Kinetics.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/analyst-sounds-the-alarm-on-the-most-crowded-trade-in-investing-history-180954941.html
While Mr. Bregman notes that the idea of indexing is sound, he believes supply and demand issues are leading to distortions in asset prices. In fact, he goes so far as to say: "The index universe has simply become a big momentum trade and it's the most crowded trade, we think, in the history of investing. And crowded trades eventually attract short-sellers. They just need a starting gun."
In this article, Mr. Bregman raises some interesting points:
1) Index ETFs may not have as much underlying liquidity as expected if net-selling occurs.
2) Many index ETFs lack adequate diversification.
3) The "ETF Divide" (Horizon Kinetic's term for the division between securities that are included in an index and those that are not) is creating opportunities in neglected non-index securities.
4) The end of the index bubble phase could lead to a "golden age for the active value manager."
This article definitely provides some food for thought. When a large crowd starts investing in specific assets or securities, it usually makes sense to take a look around and figure out if other assets or securities are being overlooked and undervalued.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/analyst-sounds-the-alarm-on-the-most-crowded-trade-in-investing-history-180954941.html
While Mr. Bregman notes that the idea of indexing is sound, he believes supply and demand issues are leading to distortions in asset prices. In fact, he goes so far as to say: "The index universe has simply become a big momentum trade and it's the most crowded trade, we think, in the history of investing. And crowded trades eventually attract short-sellers. They just need a starting gun."
In this article, Mr. Bregman raises some interesting points:
1) Index ETFs may not have as much underlying liquidity as expected if net-selling occurs.
2) Many index ETFs lack adequate diversification.
3) The "ETF Divide" (Horizon Kinetic's term for the division between securities that are included in an index and those that are not) is creating opportunities in neglected non-index securities.
4) The end of the index bubble phase could lead to a "golden age for the active value manager."
This article definitely provides some food for thought. When a large crowd starts investing in specific assets or securities, it usually makes sense to take a look around and figure out if other assets or securities are being overlooked and undervalued.